Every pitcher has at least one bad performance. Every rookie eventually gets figured out. Continuing the series on the best arm in the National League, here’s the updated list at the halfway mark.
10. Aaron Nola (Last month: NA)
- 10-4 record across 18 starts
- 13 quality starts
- 3.48 ERA
- 1.03 WHIP
- 8.5 K/9
- 3.80 FIP
- 1.6 WAR
- What’s working: Nola’s knuckle curve is whiffing 1/3 of batters who see it; 1/3 of those whiffing are striking out on it. When they’re not whiffing, they’re mostly hitting ground balls.
- What’s not working: Nola’s sinker makes up for almost 1/3 of his 16 home runs allowed (most in the NL). Opposing batters are batting .382 with a .735 slugging percentage against Nola’s cutter. His fastballs just aren’t fooling anybody.
9. Hunter Greene (Last month: 7)
- 5-4 record across 18 starts
- 7 quality starts
- 3.45 ERA
- 1.14 WHIP
- 10.0 K/9
- 3.68 FIP
- 3.2 WAR
- What’s working: ranks in the top 7% in expected batting average and expected weighted on-base average on contact, ranks top 9% in expected slugging percentage. Batters don’t make contact often and when they do, they tend to keep it in the park.
- What’s not working: Greene has been struggling to command his new curveball that he introduced this season. Batters are hitting .333 with a 1.333 SLUG against the curve. Also not working: the antacids he’s been taking before facing the Pirates. Stop throwing up on the mound, Hunter.
8. Logan Webb (Last month: NA)
- 7-6 record across 19 starts
- 14 quality starts
- 3.09 ERA
- 1.22 WHIP
- 7.8 K/9
- 2.72 FIP
- 2.8 WAR
- What’s working: Webb’s keeping a lot of hits down, with a ground ball percentage of 57.9% so far. His four seamer, which he uses only 4.8% of the time, is striking out 72.2% of the batters who see it.
- What’s not working: Webb falls in the bottom 2% in hard hit %. Of his 5 home runs allowed, 4 have been off his changeup, which is producing a batting average of .285 with a .395 SLUG.
7. Jake Irvin (Last month: NA)
- 7-6 record across 18 starts
- 12 quality starts
- 2.80 ERA
- 1.00 WHIP
- 8.0 K/9
- 3.39 FIP
- 3.1 WAR
- What’s working: while Irvin has only used his slider a handful of times, it has a K% of 100%. His changeup hasn’t been hit at all. Irvin keeps it in the park with a 43.9% ground ball percentage.
- What’s not working: 40% of his home runs have been off his curveball. Needs to work on not hanging it
6. Reynaldo López (Last month: NA)
- 7-2 record across 16 starts
- 9 quality starts
- 1.71 ERA
- 1.13 WHIP
- 8.0 K/9
- 3.10 FIP
- 3.5 WAR
- What’s working: Lopez’s slider has a 43% whiff rate, which ranks first among NL sliders, and strikes out 38.9% of batters who see it.
- What’s not working: Reynaldo’s changeup is being met with a .364 batting average and .909 slugging percentage. This is his only weak pitch.
5. Sonny Gray (Last month: NA)
- 9-5 record across 16 starts
- 7 quality starts
- 3.30 ERA
- 1.04 WHIP
- 11.2 K/9
- 2.65 FIP
- 1.0 WAR
- What’s working: Gray ranks in the top 7% of MLB pitchers in strikeout rate and produces a ground ball percentage of 46.5%. His sweeper, with a whiff% of 41.9 and a K% of 56.5, is undoubtedly one of the best in the league.
- What’s not working: his fastball is getting hit a lot, his changeup is getting hit a lot harder.
4. Tyler Glasnow (Last month: 4)
- 8-5 record across 18 starts
- 11 quality starts
- 3.47 ERA
- 0.93 WHIP
- 11.8 K/9
- 2.78 FIP
- 1.8 WAR
- What’s working: Glasnow ranks in the top 2% in expected weighted on-base average, the top 5% in expected batting average, and the top 10% in expected slugging percentage. His fastball makes up for 36% of his 143 strikeouts and his curveball strikes out 57.1% of batters who see it. He was also really good in Oppenheimer.
- What’s not working: Cillian Murphy’s clone ranks in the bottom 2% for maximum exit velocity. While his fastball strikes a lot of batters out, it also makes up for 66.7% of his home runs. He’s reminiscent of 2023 Spencer Strider: mowing batters down while giving up the long ball.
3. Zack Wheeler (Last month: 5)
- 9-4 record across 18 starts
- 14 quality starts
- 2.74 ERA
- 0.99 WHIP
- 9.6 K/9
- 3.28 FIP
- 2.5 WAR
- What’s working: Wheeler does a good job keeping it in the park. He falls in the top 5% for exit velocity and the top 10% in hard hit percentage. His splitter has a 38.5% whiff rate while his curveball has a 36.6% whiff rate.
- What’s not working: Wheeler’s cutter has the highest batting average against and slugging against, but he only throws it 10% of the time. So while the cutter isn’t working, he knows it and just doesn’t throw it often. His four seamer makes up for 5 of his 10 home runs allowed.
2. Ranger Suarez (Last month: 2)
- 10-3 across 18 starts
- 11 quality starts
- 2.58 ERA
- 1.02 WHIP
- 8.8 K/9
- 3.07 FIP
- 2.7 WAR
- What’s working: Suarez is producing a ground ball percentage of a whopping 54.6%. Opposing batters whiff on Suarez’s changeup 40.1% of the time. He’s not allowing a lot of baserunners and he’s not allowing runs. The big secret to his success has been trusting the dominant defense he has behind him.
- What’s not working: Honestly, nothing. His sinker is getting hit (.238 batting average against) more than it’s getting whiffed (10.3 whiff%), but of the 35 hits off of his sinker, 25 have been for singles. That’s exactly what you want out of a sinker.
1. Chris Sale (Last month: 3)
- 11-3 across 16 starts
- 10 quality starts
- 2.71 ERA
- 0.91 WHIP
- 11.5 K/9
- 2.26 FIP
- 2.8 WAR
- What’s working: everything. We’re seeing vintage Chris Sale and he’s back with a vengeance. He ranks in the top 3% in exit velocity, the top 9% in expected batting average, the top 9% in weighted on-base average, top 4% in expected weighted on-base average, top 6% in hard hit percentage, top 5% in strikeout percentage, top 8% in walk percentage, and top 4% in expected ERA. He’s allowed only 7 home runs this year, the third lowest on this list (behind Lopez (6) and Webb (5) at second and first respectively). His ground ball percentage is 49.4% and we’re seeing the power slider from 2017. Sale’s slider has a whiff rate of 41.8% and a strikeout rate of 41.1%.
- What’s not working: Sale’s four seamer makes up for five of his seven home runs allowed. That’s the closest thing to a con that Chris Sale has right now.
Dropped off
- Shota Imanaga
- As of last month’s article (1): 0.84 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 9.7 K/9, 2.19 FIP, 3.0 WAR
- As of today: 3.16 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 9.1 K/9, 3.39 FIP, 1.6 WAR
- Javier Assad
- As of last month’s article (9): 1.70 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 7.8 K/9, 3.56 FIP, 2.4 WAR
- As of today: 3.04 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 8.6 K/9, 4.17 FIP, 2.1 WAR
- Freddy Peralta
- As of last month’s article (8): 3.81 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 11.3 K/9, 3.44 FIP, 0.9 WAR
- As of today: 3.95 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 11.4 K/9, 3.71 FIP, 1.1 WAR
- Austin Gomber
- As of last month’s article (10): 2.76 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 6.3 K/9, 4.59 FIP, 2.2 WAR
- As of today: 4.47 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 5.9 K/9, 4.82 FIP, 1.8 WAR
- Dylan Cease
- As of last month’s article (6): 3.29 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 11.2 K/9, 2.78 FIP, 1.1 WAR
- As of today: 4.21 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 11.4 K/9, 3.39 FIP, 1.2 WAR
Heaters n Dingers 