Evaluating the Braves Offseason

After dominating the National League East for a sixth season straight, Braves General Manager Alex Anthopoulos came into the offseason with a list (albeit a short one) of needs for the Braves to succeed heading into 2024. The 104-58 Braves lost the NLDS in four games to the 90-72 Philadelphia Phillies for a second year in a row, largely due to a lack of pitching depth.

Spencer Strider got the Game 1 start against Philly, allowing 2 runs and 5 hits across 7 innings while punching out 8 batters. Despite the loss, Strider looked like himself out there. Max Fried got the go-ahead to start Game 2, allowing 3 runs and 6 hits across 4 innings with only 3 strikeouts. Bryce Elder was given the start for Game 3 in which he allowed 6 runs, 5 hits, and 1 walk across 2.2 innings; his only accolade was getting half of his outs via strikeout. In the finale, Strider allowed 3 runs, 7 hits, and 3 walks while punching out 7. With the lackluster pitching in this year’s Postseason (Strider excluded), Anthopoulos quickly went to work on acquiring new arms for the Braves.

In the first offseason move of the year, the Braves exercised their club option to keep Charlie Morton for his age 40 season. The right-hander showed decreasing command over his pitches in 2023, and more often than not was pulled after 5 innings in games he started. Regardless, he provides immeasurable leadership in the clubhouse and can serve as a strong mentor for the young arms Atlanta may have to call up as the season progresses.

The Braves then added Angel Perdomo, a left-handed pitcher who has a 94 mph fastball, a slider with 6.2 inches of break, and a 90.6 mph changeup with 24.2 inches of drop. Perdomo will be out for the entire 2024 season, yet he was signed on a one-year contract, which doesn’t really make much sense.

AA claimed Penn Murfee off waivers from the New York Mets. Murfee boasts a 2.70 career ERA and a 0.97 career WHIP and will be a strong addition to the bullpen. His most-used pitch, a sweeper, has 44 inches of vertical movement and 17 inches of break, with a 40.9% whiff rate and a 36.4 strikeout rate; batters have a .037 batting average against this pitch. His 4-seamer is not much to write home about, with an average velocity of 87.8 MPH. His sinker clocks in at 88.2 MPH and has 35 inches of drop. Overall, he sticks to what’s working; he uses the sweeper 62.8%, the 4SFB 34.5%, and the sinker 2.7% of the time.

In the biggest trade of the offseason, the Braves traded Mike Soroka, Jared Shuster, Nicky Lopez, Braden Shewmake, and Riley Gowens to the Chicago White Sox in exchange for LHP Aaron Bummer. Many Braves fans will be sad to see Soroka leave, as he was expected to be our next ace after the rebuild years. An achilles injury sidelined him from 2020 until he faced the Oakland Athletics in a 7-2 loss on May 29, 2023. Now it’s not fair to say he’ll never bounce back, but at the moment, he’s taking up salary space that they don’t have, and has already been an expensive bench-rider over the past three years.

Aaron Bummer has a 3.84 career ERA with a 1.31 career WHIP, which I’ll be the first to say is not impressive. He relies on 5 pitches: a sinker (45.3%, 94.3 MPH), a sweeper (38%, 82.5 MPH), a cutter (10.6%, 87.2 MPH), a four seamer (5.6%, 94.7 MPH), and a changeup (0.5%, 88.1 MPH). The impressive stuff from Bummer comes in the form of his sweeper, boasting 43 inches of drop and 16.6 inches of break. His sweeper has a whiff percentage of 44.8, a strikeout percentage of 46.2, and a hard hit percentage of only 30.8, proving this to be a valuable and promising arm to bolster our bullpen.

Anthopoulos then traded Kyle Wright, who joined the 20+ win club in 2022, to the Royals in exchange for Jackson Kowar. A lot of Braves fans were upset by this because of Wright’s performance in the 2022 season, but his 21-win season was rare for him. Since making his debut in 2018, 2022 was the only season in which he pitched more than 38 innings. Wright has a long-standing history of arm injuries, will miss the entire 2024 season, and was due for salary arbitration this winter. Thanks to the trade, the Braves cleared up some salary space and avoided having to deal with arbitration hearings for an injured benchwarmer.

The addition of Reynaldo Lopez is a well-thought out acquisition. Lopez has experience both in the bullpen and the starting rotation, and the Braves are using Spring Training to see in which role he could be better utilized. His pitch repertoire features a four seamer that averages out at 98.2 MPH, a curveball with 46.8 inches of drop, a slider with 5.8 inches of break, and a changeup that averages at 88.5 MPH. The pitch with the most whiff percentage and the lowest hard hit percentage is his changeup, at 33.3% and 12.5% respectively.

Anthopoulos traded RHP prospect Cole Phillips and Jackson Kowar to the Seattle Mariners in exchange for LHP Marco Gonzales, LF Jarred Kelenic, and 1B Evan White. With Michael Harris II in CF and Ronald Acuna Jr in RF, the Braves were missing some much-needed defense in left with Eddie Rosario. The 2021 NLCS MVP elected free agency at the end of the season, and has yet to be the star that he was while facing the Dodgers in the 2021 Postseason. While Kelenic has a career batting average of .204 and a career OPS of .656 since his debut in 2021, he is a defensive unit. With Kevin Seitzer’s team, including batting consultant and Hall of Famer Chipper Jones, he has the opportunity to improve his bat while showcasing one of the better gloves in his position.

The biggest addition to the Braves rotation came in the form of LHP Chris Sale, who was acquired from the Boston Red Sox in exchange for Vaughn Grissom. Sale set a new record for fastest to 200 strikeouts in 2017 and was a World Series Champion in 2018, before a string of injuries left him on the bench for much of the following seasons. His slider is dependable when it comes to putting batters away, and his changeup (at its best) has a hard hit percentage of 17.1%. In 2021, Sale joined the list of Sandy Koufax and Max Scherzer for most immaculate innings in a career (3). All the Braves had to give Boston in return was a shortstop who can’t field. If Sale stays healthy, this was a brilliant move by Anthopoulos.

Overall, Anthopoulos earns an A- for his efforts this offseason. Kelenic and many of the acquired arms show potential, and Sale has proven in the past that he can dominate on the mound. These are matters of “ifs;” if Kelenic and the bullpen arms can reach the potential AA has seen in them and if Sale stays healthy, the Braves have a pretty strong chance at reaching the World Series.